Poll-er Opposites

We all knew this day would come. The day when I had to talk about polls. Believe me, I was dreading it as much as you were.

Before I go into everything that's wrong with election polling, and which polls you should and shouldn't trust, I'll say a few words about what's good about public opinion polls. In three recent major elections (2008, 2010 and 2012) the polls predicted election results fairly accurately. In this election season, public opinion polls were showing the rise of Trump before anyone in the mainstream thought of his candidacy as legitimate. The polls did something that even light of my life Nate Silver didn't do, and predicted that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination.

Read More

Looking Into the Future

If you know me even a little, you know that I hold the website 538 in the absolute highest regard. Maybe it's because I've never been good at math so I'm easily convinced by statistics and models that I don't fully understand, maybe it's because the site predicts elections correctly the vast majority of the time, or maybe it's because I'm widely known as the Nate Silver of Oscar Predictions, so I feel a certain kinship.*

So when a journalist from 538 tweeted that Clinton would probably secure the nomination before the polls even closed in California, I had a vision of the future where people were complaining that she "stole the election" because they called if for her before the people of California even decided. This blog post is here to explain why that's not the case.

Read More

Who Will Win the Nomination: Democratic Edition

Not Martin O'Malley, that's for sure.

The race right now is between Senator Sanders, socialist-democratic Senator from Vermont, and Secretary Hillary Clinton, former Senator from New York, former Secretary of State, and former presidential candidate. Who do I think is going to win?

Let's just say I'm not #FeelingTheBern and I don't think this country is #OverTheHillz. Hillary Clinton is outpolling Bernie Sanders by 16 points, according to a recent NBC poll. Recently, Senator Sanders hit a new high, with 33% of Democratic voters saying they would support him. But compare that to the 49% of Democratic voters saying they would support Secretary Clinton, and it's a little less impressive. In Iowa specifically, Bernie is polling at 40%, impressive, but still distant behind Clinton's 51%

Read More

Who Will Win the Nomination: Republican Edition

The Answer May Surprise You!

Fears over Trump-O-Mania are, in my opinion, unfounded. Is the Donald doing well in the polls? Sure, though he is slipping, as evidenced by a recent poll that put Ted Cruz ahead of him in Iowa. A poll that was interestingly followed by one of the most outlandish statements yet from Mr. Golden Hair, putting him back in the news, and likely, back at the top of the polls. But these polls, based on name recognition, are not everything. 

Read More

October Crisis Part 2: Our Debt

At last, like a light in the darkness, we are starting to hear whisperings of the possibility of debt limit negotiations.

Friday, GOP leaders met with President Obama to talk about raising the debt ceiling for six weeks This bill will include a short-term debt limit increase as well as a promise to go to conference, in exchange for a promise from Obama to discuss long-term deficit reduction solutions. Speaker Boehner (R-OH) also hopes the talks will include negotiations to end the government shutdown.

That’s right. There are no current plans to end the government shutdown, merely a promise to raise the debt ceiling for a short six weeks.

Read More